Location: US International Trade Commission, Washington DC
When: 3-7 June 2019
Contact for enquires: Professor Peter Dixon (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Description: The course will present dynamic general equilibrium modelling as a practical tool for forecasting and policy analysis. It will cover theory, computation, application and result interpretation.
Participants will use an aggregated version of the USAGE model of the U.S. economy. USAGE is a 500-sector dynamic model developed by the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) in collaboration with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC). It has been applied in Washington by and on behalf of: the U.S. International Trade Commission; the U.S. Departments of Commerce, Agriculture, Homeland Security, Energy and Transportation; the Mitre Corporation; and the Canadian Embassy.
Recent USAGE-based policy studies have dealt with Buy America(n), illegal immigration, transport infrastructure, replacement of crude oil by biofuels, greenhouse policies, terrorism events, the Obama stimulus package and the National Export Initiative. In 2004, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2017 reports of USAGE results on the effects of U.S. trade policy were presented to the Executive Office of the President.
Participants will be introduced to the GEMPACK software. Using this software they will construct a year-by-year baseline forecast for the period 2014 to 2024. This forecast is advised by extraneous macro forecasts and historical trends. Participants will then undertake policy simulations showing the year-by-year effects of shocks as deviations from the baseline. Possible shocks include: changes in tariffs; reductions in public expenditure; changesin oil prices; changes in investor confidence in the U.S. economy; shifts in foreign demands for U.S. tourism services; and replacement of crude petroleum with biomass. Participants will take away from the course software and files that will allow them to perform simulations with the aggregated version of the model.